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Fitch Rates Mongolian Mining First-Time 'B'; Outlook Stable; Rates Bonds

MMC's rating is constrained by its small scale, single-product focus and limited cost competitiveness outside of northern China. However, MMC has flexibility in capex, which should give it sufficient buffer to continue generating free cash flows during a coal price downturn. 

Global Miners Focus on Capex, M&A on Back Burner

The chief executives of a number of large miners, including BHP and Anglo American, highlighted at last month's BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference that organic growth is their main focus. While they may be open to M&A in principle, it is unlikely that acquisitions could match the internal rates of return in excess of 20% that are achievable through developing latent capacity at existing sites, or employing technology and innovation to increase production and optimise costs.

Spain Election Outcome Unclear; Risks Catalonia Tensions

The outcome of early Spanish elections and prospects for greater political stability remain uncertain, while current political positions point to greater tensions over the Catalonia regional government's policy of independence. The main implications for Spain's sovereign credit profile are how the election outcome affects fiscal policy and the path of public debt/GDP; and the impact of Catalonia-related tensions. 

EMEA Carmakers Catching Up with Tesla, BYD in Electric Vehicle Race

European carmakers are refocusing their strategy towards electric vehicles and catching up with specialised manufacturers. Carmakers have increased investments in plug-in-hybrids and battery electric vehicles with numerous model launches expected in the next 12 to 24 months.

Boeing 737 MAX Issues Could Have Broad Aviation Effects

The Boeing 737 MAX could be a concern throughout the aviation credit sector for much of 2019, according to Fitch Ratings.
ReportGlobal Airlines, Lessors Face Mixed 737 MAX Grounding Risk

No Immediate Impact Likely on US Colleges in DoJ Investigation

This week's charges of fraudulent admissions brought on by the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) are not likely to lead to near-term negative rating actions for U.S. colleges and universities. Over the longer term, credit risks may arise from related legal costs, as well as from reputational damage contributing to any weakened demand and/or philanthropic efforts.

Falling Smartphone Demand Hitting Asian Component Makers

The downturn in global smartphone demand is posing challenges for Asian component manufacturers and the most vulnerable are those that are lower down the technology chain and operating in highly competitive sub-sectors.

Airbnb/HotelTonight Hastens Alternative, Hotel Convergence

Airbnb's planned acquisition of HotelTonight highlights the convergence of alternative and traditional lodging and the use of M&A to build out online travel agency platforms. We view Airbnb as a potential disruptor for traditional operators in global lodging and leisure but do not expect the online lodging marketplace's growth to affect credit profiles. 

No-Deal Brexit Would Slow Irish Banks' Momentum

A no-deal Brexit would lead to a slowdown in Irish banks' business and credit growth, challenging their revenue growth targets, and could hinder their plans to reduce non-performing loans.

Boeing 737 MAX Issue Could Have Broad Aviation Credit Effects

The Boeing 737 MAX could be a concern throughout the aviation credit sector for much of 2019. It is premature to take credit ratings actions at this time, as final conclusions about the Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air crashes are not yet known, and there are many scenarios that could play out. Most concerning would be a harsh scenario including a systemic issue with the aircraft leading to lengthy groundings, material delivery delays, significant order cancelations and negative public sentiment toward the MAX. 

Fitch Ratings Revises Potential Growth for Large EMs as Investment Outlook Deteriorates

Potential growth projections for the larger emerging market (EMs) economies have deteriorated due mainly to a gloomier outlook for investment. A slowdown in projected investment growth over the next few years is the over-arching theme according to Fitch Ratings' Economics team.

2019 Latin American Corporates Spotlight: Credit Benchmark Series

Jay Djemal, Head of Credit Research for Latin America Corporates, gives an overview of Fitch’s series of Spotlights that benchmark nine major issuers from Latin America against their main developed market peers.

Nigerian Banks' Rising LC Issuance Is Credit Positive

Nigerian banks' rising local-currency (LC) issuance is credit positive as it diversifies their funding and reduces their foreign-exchange risk, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. However, most ratings remain constrained by Nigeria's operating environment and 'B+' sovereign rating.

Mizuho Profit Warning Reflects Pressures Facing Japanese Banks

Mizuho Financial Group's announcement that it is writing off JPY680 billion (USD6.1 billion) related to the restructuring of the retail banking business and losses on its securities portfolio clears up some already-identified problems, but also reflects pressures that still lie ahead for Japanese banks.

Bloomberg

China's Medium-Term Potential Growth at Around 5.5%, Fitch Says

Stephen Schwartz, head of sovereign ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, talks about China's economy, the government's policies, and debt ratings. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Asia."

Sri Lanka Taking Steps to Reduce Fiscal and Economic Risks

Sri Lanka's agreement with IMF staff on the fifth review and extension of its programme, together with its recent budget targeting medium-term fiscal consolidation, are steps toward restoring policy certainty after the disruptions caused by political upheaval in 2018.

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